Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 11.160512 12.788997 14.544242 16.573291 18.850621 21.324048 24.210077
2025-06-29 8.661043 10.842056 13.377083 16.527225 20.321562 24.728469 30.217226
2025-07-06 6.975263 9.260427 12.051959 15.687656 20.269411 25.820991 33.022469
2025-07-13 6.217492 8.686049 11.833604 16.100414 21.686497 28.698496 38.105750
2025-07-20 5.601609 8.183338 11.600444 16.395630 22.881748 31.271471 42.850751
2025-07-27 4.979020 7.587412 11.163057 16.344997 23.568906 33.173647 46.776817
2025-08-03 4.415582 7.002998 10.668956 16.144099 23.993234 34.697065 50.219639
2025-08-10 3.998233 6.581360 10.354937 16.149037 24.670414 36.561394 54.177716
2025-08-17 3.678975 6.270605 10.166193 16.303081 25.543463 38.712179 58.604607
2025-08-24 3.353747 5.915056 9.873858 16.267555 26.115608 40.436770 62.475627
2025-08-31 3.044056 5.551897 9.534968 16.125203 26.500717 41.884382 65.982276
2025-09-07 2.822668 5.311985 9.367024 16.228040 27.249751 43.884327 70.366929
2025-09-14 2.684366 5.206117 9.414741 16.688783 28.599101 46.878244 76.424693
2025-09-21 2.439601 4.889659 9.087875 16.512973 28.922955 48.313683 80.169569
2025-09-28 2.117945 4.399760 8.423015 15.717412 28.180202 48.029395 81.204991
2025-10-05 2.020591 4.317581 8.459335 16.115249 29.420902 50.927753 87.353421
2025-10-12 1.916653 4.211978 8.443611 16.416287 30.506591 53.612965 93.256431
2025-10-19 1.772053 4.011722 8.238640 16.363640 30.977031 55.304429 97.606378
2025-10-26 1.621695 3.784354 7.964241 16.163218 31.171946 56.536907 101.237741
2025-11-02 1.510335 3.626414 7.808447 16.167922 31.722774 58.379389 105.939684
2025-11-09 1.425516 3.516367 7.736283 16.322211 32.544490 60.707789 111.535180
2025-11-16 1.326763 3.365819 7.571680 16.286619 33.012939 62.438985 116.169226
2025-11-23 1.225401 3.198868 7.360397 16.144128 33.270911 63.805224 120.214620